Stocks got off to a strong start in the week after President Donald Trump said the two countries had held “productive” talks about a potential end to hostilities. Wolf Research analyst Rob Ginsburg said in a note Tuesday that he believes Monday’s surge was a “dead cat rally” and that the lows of the decline have not yet been broken, adding that Feyre appeared on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Thursday. Market momentum is “clearly on the downside,” Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton said Thursday on CNBC’s “Money Movers.” “There are still too many unknowns,” Phil Brancato, chief market strategist at Ozaik, said in an interview. “My fundamental belief, like many on the Street, is that this is nearing the end, not the beginning.” But to be honest, no one really knows. ” Investors believe a simple social post by President Trump calling for an end to the war could send stocks soaring, or an attack on a key piece of energy infrastructure could calm the market, as did Monday’s sign of detente, but investors said in a note Tuesday that the “shock phase” of the war is behind traders. “If the decline continues, the market is likely to remain on a 2022-style downtrend,” said strategist Anshul Gupta, referring to the past bear market in U.S. stocks. “Further declines in stock prices are likely to lead to further declines due to higher inflation and lower growth.” Edward Jones Senior Economist James McCann pointed to Tuesday’s S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report, which showed higher prices and slower output growth, which he added is the first time the sentiment survey has been conducted. Mr McCann is keeping a particular eye on the March retail sales report, pending the release of the March Consumer Price Index report on April 10, to understand consumer behavior amid the turmoil. “I think it’s going to be interesting,” he said, also keeping an eye on data from the interest rate-sensitive housing sector, particularly as longer-term interest rates have pushed mortgage rates soaring, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield again above 4.4% on Thursday. But Wells Fargo argued in a note that the U.S. economy is now in a better position to weather an oil crisis than in the past, meaning the concerns may not actually show up in the data. The bank pointed to the United States’ status as a net exporter of fossil fuels. UBS said in a note Thursday that the domestic economy could theoretically absorb up to $200 a barrel of the impact from oil prices, with historically low households spending on energy and large tax refunds from Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” but Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Trust Wealth, predicted “investors won’t pay much attention.” “We’re really focused on what the data is going to be in three to six months,” he said. “Ultimately, the duration of this war is still going to have an impact. … One eye is on the data and the other eye is on the war,” Lerner said, adding that if we’re in the midst of progress toward ending a military conflict, markets will brush aside bad economic data. @CL.1 Mountain 2026-02-27 @CL.1 Chart after February 27, 2026. Brancato expressed a similar view. He believes the U.S. can easily handle the oil shock and doesn’t think the data will move the market much. What will happen to core inflation in March, which excludes energy prices? “Assuming the core numbers remain relatively stable, we should be fine and that will push the market higher,” CNBC’s Michael Bloom wrote.
