Amphibious warships, landing craft, and thousands of Marines and sailors are being sent to the region despite US President Donald Trump’s declaration that the “war is won” with Iran.
The deployment has fueled speculation about whether the United States plans to seize Kharg Island, a coral reef off Iran’s coast and an economic lifeline for Tehran that handles about 90% of the country’s oil exports.
Even if the US were to succeed in seizing the small but strategic island, experts question whether it would have enough influence to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the global energy crisis spirals.
Here’s what we know about potential ground operations and their risks.
What is Kharg Island?
Kharg Island stretches eight kilometers off the Iranian coast, is about one-third the size of Manhattan, and is described by U.S. officials as “the nexus of Iran’s entire oil supply.”
Its long jetty juts out into waters deep enough for oil supertankers to dock, making the island an important location for oil distribution.
The island has long been key to Iran’s economy. A declassified 1984 CIA document published online states that these facilities are “the most important of Iran’s oil system and their continued operation is essential to Iran’s economic health.”
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), alternative export routes exist that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but they are limited and have not been robustly tested on a large scale.
For example, Iran opened the Jask Oil Terminal in 2021, allowing crude oil to be shipped to Jask in the Gulf of Oman just east of the strait, but the terminal is not considered a viable export option for Iranian crude, the IEA said.
Kag Island’s storage capacity is estimated at around 30 million barrels, according to Reuters, and trade information firm Kpler says it currently stores around 18 million barrels of crude oil.
Earlier this month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said the destruction of the terminal would “paralyze Iran’s economy and bring down the regime.” He declared that Israel “must destroy all Iranian oil fields and energy industries on Kharg Island.”
Two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) that specialize in rapid response amphibious landings, raids and assault missions from the Navy’s amphibious ships recently deployed to the Middle East.
Previous military exercises involving the MEU have seen attack helicopters in the sky, troops on the coast and giant amphibious assault ships in the water.
NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis said on Tuesday that MEU ships are “packed with a lot of combat capability.”
But Stavridis warned in a Bloomberg article that before any ground operations could be carried out, the US would need to cross the Strait of Hormuz to reach the northern Gulf and combat Iranian drones, ballistic missiles and mines in the waterway.
“Once in position off Kharg, the Marines would require ironclad air and sea superiority for at least 160 miles around the island,” Stavridis said.
One significant risk is that Iran could attack amphibious ships. Another concern, Stavridis added, is the fate of the island’s population, estimated to be in the thousands, almost all oil workers, who will need to be “contained” or evacuated.
Mr. Stavridis also questioned the strategic influence such an operation would have in Washington. “It is unclear whether the remaining leaders of the regime will be intimidated by the threat of losing Karg if the idea is to then negotiate with Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz,” Stavridis said.
“They may be hesitant to agree to give up something for the sake of Karg,” he added.
Richard Haas, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said last week that any mission at Kharg would likely “further erode the U.S. missile stockpile,” along with the potential for U.S. military casualties.
It’s unclear exactly why the U.S. is considering seizing Kharg, but Haas said on his Substack page that this is “likely to be seen by many at home and abroad as a U.S. attempt to seize Iranian oil.”
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Berger Ghalibaf said on Wednesday that “Iran’s enemies are preparing to occupy one of the country’s islands with the support of regional countries” without giving any direction on the naming of the island.
“All movements of the enemy are under the full surveillance of our military. If the enemy deviates from its course, all critical infrastructure of the country in the region will become the target of unrestrained and relentless attack,” Ghalibaf posted on X on Wednesday.
“We are closely monitoring all U.S. movements in the region, especially military deployments,” Ghalibaf said early Wednesday.
Iran has been laying traps and moving additional military and air defense forces to Kharg in recent weeks in preparation for a possible U.S. operation to seize the island, according to people familiar with U.S. intelligence reports on the matter.
The island already has layered defenses, and Iran has deployed additional shoulder-fired surface-to-air guided missile systems known as MANPADs in recent weeks, officials said.
Sources said Iran has placed traps, including anti-personnel and anti-armor mines, around the island, including along the coastline.
Has the US attacked the island before?
yes. President Trump said earlier this month that the United States had threatened to bomb “all military targets” on the island and attack oil infrastructure if Iran continued to block ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
A video posted on Truth Social and geolocated by CNN showed the US attack on the island’s airport complex, with large explosions and black smoke visible throughout the footage.
President Trump said on the same day that Kaag was “not high on the list, but this is one of so many different things that you can change your mind about in seconds.”
But President Trump was talking about invading the island as far back as 1988, decades before he was elected.
“If a bullet is fired at one of our soldiers or one of our ships, as I would do for many on Kharg Island, I will go in and take it,” he said in an interview with the Guardian at the time.
White House officials believe that capturing Kharg Island could “completely bankrupt” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and lead to an early end to the war, one official said.
But many within the administration are wary of such a move, especially given that it would require significant ground troops.
Gulf allies have privately urged the Trump administration to stay on the ground and seize Kharg Island to avoid prolonging the war, a senior Gulf official said.
The concern is that a U.S. military occupation of the island would likely result in heavy casualties, trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure, and prolong the conflict, a senior Gulf official said.
Iranian officials have warned as well.
Alireza Tansiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval commander whom Israel claimed to have killed on Thursday, said last November that Iran’s islands in the Persian Gulf were “fortified strongholds.”
“If the enemy makes a mistake, there will be a decisive response,” Tansiri said.
