“Stay safe in uncertain times”
It’s a message of stability that Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen bet on in her campaign ahead of Tuesday’s general election, seeking to capitalize on her response to the showdown with the Trump administration over Greenland.
Frederiksen, who has gained international recognition for his strong response to the Ukraine war, the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage and threats by US President Donald Trump, had until October to call an election. And she chose her moments carefully.
Last year, Mr. Frederiksen’s Social Democratic Party was in the doldrums. According to polling firm Megafon, the center-left party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections, and its support rating fell to about 17% in a December poll. However, according to the latest poll conducted by Megafon for Danish media outlets TV2 and Politiken, approval ratings have rebounded to 20.9% after the prime minister’s response to the flare-up of the Greenland conflict a month later.
While discussions about Greenland and the broader transatlantic alliance dominated much of the international conversation ahead of Tuesday’s election, domestic discussions focused more on economic concerns.
“This campaign is basically about livelihood issues,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Affairs, a Copenhagen-based think tank. “She tried to take advantage of this ‘rallies around the flag effect,’ but we all knew it was more of a momentum issue, because as soon as the debate started, it actually became economic and environmental issues this time.”
Danish voters appear to be most concerned about the cost of living crisis and inequality. The country’s decades-long nuclear ban and strict immigration policies are also hotly debated. Not to mention the relatively large number of discussions about more niche and local issues, such as the welfare of farm pigs.
Frederiksen, 48, is seeking a third term in charge of Scandinavia’s national politics. But disillusioned voters feel he is not doing enough to curb rising housing, food and energy costs in Denmark. Incumbent lawmakers said in the final weeks of the campaign that they were prepared to intervene with food and heating aid if inflation rose further due to the Iran war.
One of the challengers is Denmark’s current Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, leader of the center-right Freedom Party (or Venstre Party). Mr. Venstre is campaigning for tax cuts and stricter immigration controls, and his polling rate is around 9.6%.
The other candidate is Alex Vanopslag, 34, leader of the center-right opposition party Freedom Alliance. He ran on a platform of cutting taxes as well as reducing bureaucracy, but the cocaine scandal has rocked his campaign. Still, the Freedom Alliance’s approval rating is 10.2%, meaning it is a close race to see who will lead the bloc of right-wing parties.
Greenland could play a pivotal role
Danish elections are anything but simple. There are 12 major political parties from which voters can choose. This means that elections typically result in broad coalitions and politicians are forced to quickly compromise.
According to researcher Pram Gad, Greenland could play an outsized role in voting in close elections in Denmark, which is inevitable due to the division of political parties. Denmark is an autonomous territory and, like the Faroe Islands, has two members of parliament. And on this occasion, they can have a huge impact.
“In principle, they are reluctant to interfere in Denmark’s internal affairs and try not to decide who becomes Denmark’s prime minister. But every time there is a close election, they are counted in the majority of parliament,” Pram Gad told CNN.
If opinion polls are correct, Mr. Frederiksen is on track to remain in power, but it could be his party’s weakest result in more than 100 years.
The latest figures show the so-called “Red Bloc” – a likely coalition of left-wing parties including Mr Frederiksen’s Social Democrats – leading by a narrow margin. According to the latest Megafon poll released on Monday night, the bloc is expected to win 86 seats, just seconds short of the 90 seats needed for a majority in Denmark’s 179-member parliament.
Denmark’s parliamentary system does not require a party or bloc to have a majority. To govern, you simply need to make sure that no one opposes you.
Meanwhile, the right-wing party Blue Bloc is expected to win 77 seats. That number could rise to 89 if Denmark’s moderates, led by Foreign Minister Lars Lökke Rasmussen, join the coalition.
As a result, moderates may become central figures in the new government.
Interestingly, Greenland once reliably sent two left-wing MPs to Copenhagen. But this year, the Arctic island is likely to elect at least one center-right parliamentarian to represent Denmark. And voters in the Faroe Islands could follow the same path.
“There is increased attention to who will be elected from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, both because they could have a decisive influence on who forms the government in Denmark, but also because of all these tensions,” Pram Gad added.
Tensions are gradually rising following the US threat to annex Greenland. But long before President Trump came on the scene, relations between Denmark and Greenland were fraught with controversy. The hostility stems from issues of colonial history and structural racism, concerns about how Greenlanders will be treated in Denmark, and the ever-present question of a desire to secede from the territory.
“Greenland is essentially still on a slow-motion path to independence,” Pram Gad explained, adding that Greenland’s political parties are expected to use their position as decision-makers in the Danish government to secure meaningful benefits for their country’s economy and autonomy.
Polls close at 8pm local time (3pm Eastern time) on Tuesday, and exit polls should make the results relatively clear in the next few hours.
If Frederiksen and the Social Democrats win, she could become Denmark’s second-longest-serving leader in history. Once his term expires, Mr. Frederiksen will have been in office for approximately 11 years. Once Denmark’s youngest prime minister, he is now a veteran tested by crisis after crisis.
CNN’s Jennifer Asiesta contributed to this report.
