Stock and oil futures volume spikes minutes before President Trump’s market turnaround remarks

S&P 500 futures and oil futures were unusually active early Monday morning, minutes before a market-moving social media post by President Donald Trump.

Around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on CME broke out of pre-market slump and recorded a sharp jump in volume on its own. Amid the thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the highest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in the oil market. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable increase in trading activity around the same time, punctuating an otherwise quiet situation with an apparent spike in trading volume.

Approximately 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., President Trump said on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held talks and halted plans to attack Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. Risk assets immediately rose following the announcement, with S&P 500 futures surging more than 2.5% before the opening bell. Following the announcement, West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 6%.

The timing of the initial volume spike across both stocks and oil caught the attention of traders, especially given that there was no obvious catalyst at the moment it occurred.

Early morning futures markets are generally less liquid, so short-term buying and selling may be more noticeable than during normal trading hours. Still, the trade raised some eyebrows because people who bought large amounts of stock futures and then sold or shorted oil futures at that moment were making huge profits just minutes later.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Indeed, algorithmic and macro-driven strategies can also generate rapid flows across asset classes without a single discernible catalyst early in the trade.

— With assistance from CNBC’s Fred Imbert.