What humanoid robots can teach us about risk, work, and the economy: CEO

Recently, Apptronik announced a $520 million funding round at a valuation of over $5 billion. alphabetGoogle DeepMind joins as a partner. Today, a market position within the category of humanoid robots seems inevitable.

In 2019, that was not the case.

I was on the YPO Forum’s Austin trip and had arranged for a group of us to visit Capital Factory to hear startup pitches. As usual, it was mostly forgotten. Interesting idea, thin moat. No technical talent.

Then Jeff Cardenas came in with an interesting robot arm.

Apptronik was spun out of the University of Texas at Austin. The pitch is to build a general-purpose humanoid robot that can operate in real-world industrial environments.

That sounded insane.

But within minutes, our group (all founders and management) realized we wanted to participate and became the second investor at a valuation of $15 million.

Here’s why:

1. The problem was very real

Most startups solve small frictions. Humanoid robotics addresses labor itself.

Populations are aging in developed countries. Manufacturing and logistics companies are struggling to recruit. Labor costs continue to rise. Entire supply chains rely on physically demanding tasks that humans are unwilling or physically unable to do for long periods of time.

Even if you can build a humanoid to perform repetitive, dangerous, or ergonomically brutal tasks, you have not created a useful product. We are changing the cost structure that is at the core of the world’s GDP. Structural pain creates structural demands.

2. Ambition justifies risk

Early-stage investing is dual-pronged. It can be, and usually is, zero. If you’re going to take that risk, the upside has to be non-linear.

Labor is one of the largest input costs in the global economy. Scalable humanoid platforms represent a trillion-dollar category if they work well.

Jeff wasn’t promoting a featured product. He was pitching a platform with an almost unlimited total addressable market. A small market limits your results. Big markets forgive early mistakes.

3. The technical depth was real.

Hard technology is ruthless. Physics does not respond to charisma.

Apptronik was not a software wrapper. Jeff and his co-founders grew out of deep research in robotics at UT Austin. Engineers understood not only slideware, but also actuation, balance, and power systems.

Too many founders outsource the hard parts and hope capital will fill the gap. There are no shortcuts in robotics.

4. The founders valued durability over polish.

Hardware startups routinely face near-death moments: supply chain delays, cost overruns, milestone milestones, and customer skepticism.

Jeff had something I look for in all founders: stability. It’s not hype. It’s not bravado. Endurance and humility.

You can’t build something this ambitious if you cause panic every time something breaks. In robotics, things break all the time. Durability increases over time.

5. The risk was obvious, but it was an opportunity.

I’ve invested in many hardware deals during my career, and there’s a reason for the expression “hardware is hard.” Expansion is extremely difficult due to capital investments with uncertain returns.

Additionally, they are difficult to manufacture on a stand-by basis, difficult to reduce unit economics, difficult to integrate hardware with advanced AI, and difficult to deliver at scale.

That’s why opportunities exist.

Apptronik is currently in discussions with major global companies for a sales pipeline of over $1.2 billion.

6. AI changed timing

But pipelines are not equivalent to production. The real test will be manufacturing discipline once deliveries scale up.

In my experience, manufacturing is the ultimate moat. Vision attracts capital. Execution builds companies.

Apptronik struggled for years and faced numerous existential threats.

Then along came artificial intelligence.

With advanced AI systems and a partnership with Google DeepMind, the intelligence layer is finally aligned with hardware goals.

Non-intelligent robots are expensive machines, but intelligent robots are a workforce. That difference changed everything.

7. This is bigger than the profit of the venture.

Humanoid robots will impact manufacturing, logistics, defense, and national competitiveness.

Other countries are also actively funding this category. Sovereign funds are being watched closely. Capital is global. Leadership doesn’t have to be that way.

Apptronik is an American story. We focus on university research, private capital, ambitious founders, and industry.

Apptronik was ranked 33rd on the 2025 CNBC Disruptor 50 list.

If this category is inevitable, and I believe it is, then it matters who leads.

The United States has the ingredients: world-class universities, strong capital markets, and founders willing to take uncomfortable risks. We should utilize them and provide them with all the support they can.

Elon Musk says there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans. And these robots could be the key to interplanetary travel and other almost unimaginable advances.

But just a few years ago, Apptronik was just a principled founder, a true tech bench, and a big enough problem. That’s usually where your best bet begins.

Developing humanoid robots may take longer than optimists predict. It will almost certainly cost more than you expected. Manufacturing scale separates the winners from the dreamers.

However, if it goes well, it will not only create a large company. The way you work will change.

And those are the kinds of risks worth taking.

—By Ravin Gandhi, CEO of investment firm Glenbourne Partners and former CEO and founder of global manufacturing company GMM Nonstick Coatings. Gandhi is co-host of the podcast “Forged In America.”