The Arab states of the Persian Gulf tried to stop the United States and Israel from attacking Iran. Now the Iranian government is retaliating, putting its territory under fire.
Iran’s neighbors have spent decades preparing for a potential attack. However, both the government and local residents have been stunned by the ferocity of Iran’s retaliation.
Since the Islamic Republic came to power nearly half a century ago, oil-rich Arab states allied with the United States have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on American weapons and shored up their defenses against their neighbors by hosting American military bases in hopes of deterring attacks. Up to 40,000 US troops are stationed in the region, which is equipped with advanced US missile defense systems.
Iran has protested the presence of U.S. forces on its shores for decades, repeatedly warning its Arab neighbors that countries hosting U.S. military facilities could be targeted if the U.S. attacked it.
US President Donald Trump said Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike this week, along with 49 other senior Iranian officials. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Monday that Iran’s “nuclear pursuit” and “growth in ballistic missiles and killer drones” are “no longer acceptable.”
As the U.S. military began building up military assets near Iran over the past few weeks, Tehran has repeatedly warned that any U.S. attack would not be met with the “restraint” it showed during last summer’s 12-day war, which began when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran that ultimately drew the United States in.
Still, the reaction to Khamenei’s killing provoked reactions that most observers did not expect. Since Khamenei’s killing, the regime has fired more than 400 ballistic missiles and nearly 1,000 drones into Arab countries along the Persian Gulf, according to local governments.
Even more shocking was the rapid escalation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Tactics once considered a last resort were implemented within the first 72 hours. Damage has damaged urban centers, energy infrastructure, airports and hotels in Gulf Arab states, reeling populations long accustomed to relative safety.
Ironically, some Gulf states that had urged the Trump administration not to attack Iran just weeks earlier came under fire when war broke out.
Over the course of three days, Iran’s devastating blow crippled the Gulf’s tourism industry, shut down some oil and gas facilities, targeted an international airport and a U.S. military base, killed a U.S. soldier, injured dozens of civilians, caused widespread chaos, and ultimately shot down three U.S. fighter jets in a friendly fire.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragushi said the Iranian military had switched to “mosaic defense” tactics, deploying cells of military forces operating under a decentralized system and conducting clandestine drone and missile launches from across the vast country. Experts say mobile launchers designed like civilian trucks can easily launch cheaply manufactured drones and short-range ballistic missiles.
For three days, Iran continued to wreak havoc on its neighbors, even as the Trump administration waged what Hegseth described as “the most lethal and precise airpower operation in history.”
The escalating attacks have forced airspace closures, stranded tens of thousands of travelers, forced schools to move to remote learning and kept frightened residents indoors to avoid falling debris.
“We have spent 20 years studying the defeats of US forces in the East and West,” Aragushi wrote to X, referring to Afghanistan and Iraq. “We adapted the lessons accordingly.”
Araghchi told Al Jazeera in an interview that Iranian military units are currently “independent” and “isolated” and are acting according to general instructions given in advance.
Arab leaders have sought to calm their citizens and expatriates, who have chosen to move to the Persian Gulf region for the promise of stability, security and prosperity, but who are growing anxious as the conflict becomes more chaotic. And my patience is wearing thin.
A senior Gulf official described Iran’s attacks on its neighbors, especially arch-rival Saudi Arabia, as a “miscalculation” and told CNN that Tehran has “lost all goodwill from Islamic and Arab countries.”
Reem Al Hashimi, UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation, told CNN that the United Arab Emirates “cannot sit idly by” as it continues to come under “barrage of attacks.” Similarly, Qatar said it “reserves the right to retaliate” against Iran, and Saudi Arabia said it would “take all necessary measures” to protect its security, including “options to respond to aggression.”
“We know this is a scary time for many residents,” Al Hashimy said. “I think it is important to reassure the UAE people… that our country has the best missile defense system in the world and we are making every effort to ensure that we remain safe,” she added. When Iran launched its missile attack, the UAE was one of the best-prepared countries in the region and had one of the most advanced U.S.-backed air defense systems in the Middle East.
Over two days, it intercepted the largest barrage of projectiles ever fired at this country. The effort relies heavily on the U.S.-supplied Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which is designed to intercept missiles at very high altitudes, including outside the atmosphere. In neighboring Qatar, Patriot missiles and fighter jets were deployed to counter the projectile.
But with Iranian officials hinting at a protracted conflict and the Trump administration setting no clear goals, it remains unclear how long Arab countries can maintain their air defenses before they are depleted.
During Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last June, the United States destroyed about a quarter of its THAAD interceptors. The United States has seven THAAD systems, two of which were used by Israel during the conflict.
It is also unclear how much of Iran’s stockpile of missiles and drones has been depleted. In four major direct conflicts between April 2024 and this week, Iran has launched thousands of projectiles, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, in nearly two dozen waves, targeting Israel and Arab states in the Gulf.
Eurasia Group’s Firas Maqsad told CNN that Iran has far more short-range ballistic missiles that can reach its neighbors than long-range projectiles, making it easier to attack targets in the Gulf Arab states.
“Iran has more short-range ballistic missiles that can reach the Gulf and thousands of suicide drones that it can (quickly) produce. As Iran runs out of long-range missiles, the center of gravity of this conflict increasingly shifts to the GCC and oil infrastructure,” he said, referring to the six Gulf Cooperation Council Arab states.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute who specializes in Iranian security and defense, said Iran could maintain its current rate of bombardment of Gulf states for about a month.
“If they fire one or more missiles or fire 50 to 70 drones and reduce their rate of fire, countries could remain under stress for months,” Nadimi said.
Gulf Arab states are in a “very difficult situation, to say the least,” Maqsad said. “And I am concerned that they will continue to be in a difficult situation over the coming days and weeks.”
