Khamenei’s death raises doubts about President Trump’s visit to China

BEIJING – Uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s high-stakes visit to China is rising after Washington targeted its second foreign leader in two months.

President Trump announced over the weekend that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in a joint attack between the United States and Israel. In early January, the United States also detained Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their residence.

Analysts say such a move could complicate Trump’s high-stakes trip to Beijing.

“President Xi Jinping will not take it easy on the death of Iran’s supreme leader,” said George Chen, a partner at Asia Group, noting that Beijing has relatively good relations with Tehran and Caracas.

“How can Mr. Xi feel that everything is normal and okay and welcome President Trump’s visit with a happy mood?” he said. “Investors should manage their expectations about what Trump can accomplish with his visit to China if he continues,” Chen added.

President Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2 following a fragile trade ceasefire with China that was reached in late October. This will be the first overseas trip by a sitting US president since 2017.

However, the Chinese government has not yet confirmed the dates.

China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned the killing of Khamenei, calling it a “grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security.” Beijing has called for an immediate ceasefire, but has been less direct about the U.S. role than it was after Maduro’s arrest.

One foreign company executive, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said he was closely following the preparations for the meeting and said, “I’m worried that if the situation in Iran is bad, the US side will use Iran to delay the trip.”

“I think the risk (of travel collapse) is more on the U.S. side than on the Chinese side,” the executive added.

A US-based prediction market suggested that President Trump’s visit is more likely to be delayed.

As of late Monday morning, Polymarket showed that expectations that President Trump would visit China by March 31st had fallen sharply to 42% from 83.9% on February 21st, while bets on him visiting China by April 30th remained high at 81%.

Carsi said expectations that President Trump will visit China by 2027 remain high at 91%, but have declined slightly.

Although many analysts still expect the visit to proceed, it is less clear how U.S. companies will proceed with their trading plans in the world’s second-largest economy.

Trump is expected to be accompanied by several senior U.S. officials on his trip to Beijing, following the pattern of business delegations following world leaders on their trips to China this year in an effort to seal deals.

“Before the Iran attack, many American CEOs were already reluctant to go to China with President Trump. Now the situation is even more troubling,” said an active member of the American business community in China, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

The White House and China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Jack Li, an analyst at China Macro Group, said the outlook for China so far shows an “unusually soft tone.” He expects President Trump to visit Beijing as scheduled, but is watching closely to see whether Washington will signal a curb on arms sales to Taiwan.

The democratically autonomous island, claimed by the Chinese government, remains a central flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

Meanwhile, President Trump told Britain’s Daily Mail newspaper that the U.S. attack on Iran could last four weeks, a point Chinese state media emphasized on Monday morning. The deadline would extend to the scheduled start of the trip to China on March 31st.

“If the conflict escalates further into a regional war than the U.S. had originally planned, President Trump could potentially delay his visit,” said Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Still, I hope that President Trump and Mr. Xi will discuss this on the phone at some point,” she said. Her basic view remains that President Trump will force a visit to China later this month.

China begins its annual parliamentary session this week, with top diplomat Wang Yi usually addressing the press. In mid-February, Wang told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that the US and China should strive to expand areas of cooperation.

In foreign policy, the Chinese government has prioritized its own interests by strengthening bilateral relations while encouraging multilateral engagement. Official statements regarding past U.S.-China talks have pointed to the need to create “conditions” for bilateral relations to develop.

Dong Xiaopeng, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China, said US actions in Iran have undermined trust between the two countries. He said he still expected Trump and Xi to meet in the coming weeks but hoped the conflict would not spread to other countries in the Middle East.

Chinese pro-government columnist Niutanqing said on Monday that the Iran “war” is more intense than the Ukraine conflict, and drew several lessons. According to a Chinese translation of CNBC’s post, the columnist said that among several lessons learned from the development of events, Khamenei’s death made it clear that “traitors” can emerge from within and that negotiations can conceal the true intentions of opponents.

If the meeting between President Trump and Mr. Xi goes as planned, it could provide an opportunity for broader peace talks while addressing strained U.S.-China relations.

“The issues that both countries need to resolve – China-U.S. trade – are pretty important, and the talks were going to be held for a long time, so it would be pretty radical to call it off at this point,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director of Blueshirt Group.

“I don’t think canceling the meeting for any reason will help the situation.”