Iranian navy soldiers board an armed speedboat in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, about 800 miles south of Tehran, on April 30, 2019.
Morteza Nicobazul | Nur Photo | Getty Images
The escalation of wars in the Middle East has raised concerns about long-term disruption to global trade through key maritime corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Container shipping giants suspended operations through the strategic Strait of Hormuz and rerouted ships near the southern tip of Africa after the United States and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend.
Danish shipping company Maersk warned in a statement that services calling at ports in the Arabian Gulf could be delayed and announced it was suspending all vessel navigation in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.
The Strait of Hormuz, located in the Gulf between Oman and Iran, is recognized as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an average of 20.9 million barrels of oil per day will flow through waterways in 2023, accounting for about 20% of global oil liquid consumption.
Maersk, widely known as the barometer of global trade, said the situation in the Middle East has forced it to suspend all future cross-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait until further notice.
The waterway is located between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East and is a narrow maritime pinch point that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is estimated to account for 12% of maritime oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade in the first half of 2023.
Maersk said all sailings from the Middle East to the Mediterranean via India, and from the Middle East to India to the east coast of the United States, will be rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Zeneta, said rising container shipping rates in the Middle East would have to be factored in, at least as long as the conflict continues, adding that there were “no real alternatives” to sea shipping.
“Geopolitical risks have reared their ugly heads more often and more acutely than ever before in the past few years,” Sund told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“I think it’s fair to say there’s a bit of fatigue in the industry as well, because you create 10 contingency plans only to have them all thrown out. There are new developments and new angles to it.”
A shipping crane stands on top of a container ship loaded with shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles on February 20, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.
Tama Mario | Getty Images
Even if oil tankers were temporarily cut off from the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices could rise sharply, raising transportation costs and causing significant delays in supply.
The Strait of Hormuz is also key to the world’s container trade. The region’s ports, such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan, are transshipment hubs that serve as transit points in global networks.
German container shipping company alongside Maersk Hapag Lloyd announced over the weekend that it would suspend all vessel operations through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the safety and security of its crew.
France’s CMA CGM announced on Saturday that it had ordered all ships in and heading to the Gulf to evacuate. Traffic through the Suez Canal will also be suspended until further notice, and ships will be rerouted around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, CMA CGM said.
MSC, the world’s largest container shipping company, said on Monday that it had ordered all ships operating in the Gulf region to proceed to designated safe areas, adding that it would closely monitor future developments.
“Very cautious.”
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, said on Monday that the key question is what will happen to the Strait of Hormuz.
She estimated that about 15 million barrels of oil and about 80 million tons of LNG passed through the waterway last year.
“I think it’s very unlikely,” Sen told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” when asked if Iran would seek to completely close the strait.
“The US and Israel will eliminate it very quickly. The US has much greater military power to neutralize Iran’s ability to do that,” Sen said.
“I’m not saying the Strait will be closed, but the only thing the US can’t do is control these one-off attacks on tankers, and that’s enough to make the market very cautious about sending ships. And that creates chaos,” she added.
