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The average tax refund so far this season is up 14.2% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to initial filing data from the IRS.
The average refund for individual filers as of Feb. 13 was $2,476, up from $2,169 about a year ago, the IRS said Friday. This data is cumulative since the start of tax season on January 26th.
According to an IRS release, total refunds totaled approximately $32 billion, an 8.3% increase from 2025. However, the total number of applications received decreased by 2.6%.
As the midterm elections approach, the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans are focused on how President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” will affect tax refunds this season.
President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday that his tax refund is “significantly higher than ever before.”
“In some cases, it is estimated that more than 20% will be returned to taxpayers,” he wrote. It is unclear which estimates President Trump was referring to. The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for clarification.
A few days ago, on February 13, Treasury Secretary and Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the average tax refund so far this season has been 22% higher. It was not clear whether Mr. Bessent’s numbers included return days or what comparison period he used. But his number was significantly higher than the average refund increase of 10.9% released by the IRS later that day.
The Treasury Department did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Why is the average tax refund likely to increase?
“So far, refunds have increased and are consistent with our and the Trump administration’s expectations heading into tax filing season,” Andrew Lautz, tax policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, told CNBC.
However, there is not yet enough filing data to support conclusions about filing season trends, he said.
In its first filing season statistics release on Feb. 13, the IRS said average refunds typically begin to increase around mid-February, once payments include the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Supplemental Child Tax Credit.
These numbers are likely to be reflected in the agency’s filing data through February 20, which the IRS will release on February 27.
