Some taxpayers may receive larger refunds this year than in the past, a fact that is likely to encourage investment in risk-on assets such as stocks and Bitcoin, according to Wells Fargo. That’s because the “big, beautiful bill” passed last summer includes several taxpayer-friendly provisions in 2025. Additionally, the IRS did not update its withholding tables last year, so adjustments to previously collected taxes by workers are unlikely to result in any surprises. These factors could result in more than 60% of tax refunds resulting in $150 billion flowing into the market by the end of March, according to a new analyst note from Wells Fargo. The expected liquidity injection is likely to boost Bitcoin and a variety of stocks favored by retail investors, including Boeing and Robinhood, the bank’s analysts added. “We believe the additional savings from tax returns, especially for high-income consumers, will flow back into equities,” Wells Fargo analyst Oson Kwon said in a note Monday. “As savings increase, speculation becomes more active…We expect YOLO to return.” Analysts noted that Bitcoin acts as a proxy for liquidity and signals a change in investment patterns. According to Wells Fargo, domestic liquidity has fallen by $105 billion in the past four weeks, and Bitcoin has fallen about 29% in the past month. Wells Fargo has listed more than 20 stocks across industries that are likely to outperform come tax season, including utilities, financials and industrials. According to Wells Fargo Securities’ Flow, they have compiled a list of stocks that have been favored by retail investors over the past year based on the volume of buy orders. Wells Fargo says its trading platform is expected to see some upside amid a rush for retail investors driven by tax refunds. Robinhood is down 31% over the past month, falling alongside a surge in digital asset prices. The company announced last week that its fourth-quarter crypto revenue fell to $221 million, down 38% year over year. At the same time, operating expenses rose nearly 40% year over year in the final quarter of 2025 amid Robinhood’s efforts to transform into a “financial super app.” Boeing The aircraft maker could rise if taxpayers get money back in their pockets. Boeing stock has already risen 32% in the past year. The company has maintained strong demand for its aircraft even after suffering a financial downturn in 2024 due to a series of accidents involving its aircraft and numerous whistle-blowing incidents. The company announced earlier this month that it delivered 46 aircraft in January, the third-highest total for the month in its history. Correction: A previous version incorrectly listed the date Wells Fargo issued the report.
