The prospect of a U.S. attack on Iran has spooked oil prices this year, but analysts told CNBC that an attack would require more military involvement and be more complex than the U.S. is prepared to do.
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Tensions are high and the two sides remain at a stalemate despite talks in Oman last week. US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Iranian regime following a brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters across the United States last month.
President Trump said this week that he is considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, even as Washington and Iran prepare to resume talks. He threatened on Tuesday to do “very tough things” if Iran doesn’t agree to U.S. demands ranging from halting nuclear enrichment to reducing Iran’s ballistic missile program.
In January, the United States dispatched the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East. This brings the number of missile destroyers in the region to six, but analysts say this is still not enough to topple the regime. Following through on the threat of “something tough” would mean prolonging conflict in areas where President Trump is on high alert.
Alireza Ahmadi, executive fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told CNBC that “US forces in the region are insufficient to support the large-scale, long-term military operations in Iran that would be needed to achieve major military objectives.”
President Trump has also increased pressure on the Islamic Republic, adding financial pressure to an economy already crippled by sanctions. Just last month, he vowed to impose tariffs on countries that obtain goods and services from Iran.
But what happens next is unclear. Ali Baez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, told CNBC that “President Trump is notoriously unpredictable,” but added that Trump also recognizes that “the Iranian crisis does not lend itself to a clean, easy military option.”
Could the US continue to attack Iran?
“The cost of not attacking Iran is enormous,” Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC, adding that if he did not strike, “Trump’s legacy will remain as a president who enabled Iran to become nuclear-armed.”
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy last week that “the president is stuck, his options are not great, and this is a very dangerous moment.” McNally added that the country’s ballistic missile program means “we have to do it in a big way because Iran is a very formidable country.”
What are President Trump’s options?
President Trump said last week that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei should be “very concerned.”
But analysts warn that targeting Iranian leaders will not be similar to the operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
“The Iranian government is not Venezuela,” Alireza Ahmadi said, adding that if the United States were to remove Khamenei, “a replacement would be chosen immediately and the military would essentially be running the country for the time being.”
Power in Iran is concentrated in Ayatollah Khamenei. Although there is a president, all political, military, and foreign policy decisions in the Islamic Republic are made by him. Khamenei has held supreme power for the past 30 years with the support of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which helps implement the regime’s policies and plays a key role in foreign policy.
Rubin told CNBC that even if the United States were to remove Khamenei and find a senior government official to replace him, there would still be an “open question” about what would become of the Revolutionary Guards.
Iranian worshipers hold portraits of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the national flag during a protest condemning Israel’s attack on Iran after Friday prayers in central Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025.
Morteza Nicobazul | Nur Photo | Getty Images
“The United States cannot change a regime with air power alone without boots on the ground (from the United States or Iran). It can only change one regime to another. It could get worse or it could turn Iran into another failed state,” Baez told CNBC.
Ahmadi said that regime change in Iran would require “military involvement at least on the level of the Iraq war, but it is unlikely that President Trump would support this.” Between 2003 and 2011, 4,500 American service members were killed in Iraq.
The White House has claimed that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “destroyed” following attacks on three major nuclear facilities last year. Iran moved quickly to repair damage to its ballistic missile facilities, but a New York Times analysis said it had made “limited repairs” to the main nuclear facilities hit by the United States.
Iran has long maintained that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons. As talks resume between Washington and Tehran, Iran has proposed limiting enrichment to low levels. The United States has opposed Iran’s enrichment of uranium since the nuclear deal collapsed in 2018.
The United States has vowed to attack Iran if it resumes its nuclear and missile programs, but it is unclear whether these sites will be ready for attack again. “Both options are likely to lead to disproportionate retaliation from Iran and could escalate the conflict into a regional conflagration,” Baez said.
Possible Iranian retaliation
Iran has vowed to retaliate against US military bases in the region if Washington attacks.
“Iran is betting that the United States does not have enough anti-missile systems or THAAD systems to protect its military bases and facilities across the region, as well as Israel,” Ahmadi told CNBC.
The United States has approximately 40,000 military personnel stationed in the Middle East. It has bases in the Arabian Gulf, including U.S. Navy Central Command in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran attacked last summer, and Al Dhafra Air Base just south of Abu Dhabi.
In this frame capture made from video, missiles and air defense interceptors light up the night sky over Doha after Iran launches an attack on U.S. forces at Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on June 23, 2025.
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“I have no doubt that Iran will target U.S. military bases and its naval assets in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf. It will likely also target Israel. Remnants of its proxies may also participate,” Baez told CNBC.
Iran “appears to be preparing for a protracted military conflict lasting a week, if not months. There appears to be a sense among Iranian leadership that the United States has overestimated its influence and that a major war may be necessary to correct these assumptions,” Ahmadidi added.
