Representative Ro Khanna, D-Calif., during a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, in Washington, DC.
Graham Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With about 10 months until the 2026 election, one of the hottest topics in California has become a proposed tax on billionaires.
A new poll released Tuesday finds that supporters of the Billionaire Tax Act face an uphill battle in persuading voters in reliably liberal California. The proposal, currently gathering signatures to be added to the November ballot, calls for a one-time 5% tax on the total assets of state residents with a net worth of at least $1 billion as of Jan. 1, 2026.
According to the Melman Group, which was commissioned by Republican strategist Mike Murphy of Kensington Avenue Strategies to conduct a survey on behalf of stakeholders, including some wealthy individuals, the tax initiative initially received 48% support, 38% opposition and 14% undecided.
The survey was conducted from January 6 to 12 and included responses from 800 likely voters in California’s November 2026 election.
Melman said the group tested the formal titles and summaries that would appear on voting materials, noting that voting plans that start with less than 50% will have a hard time succeeding.
After giving those surveyed positive and negative information about the proposal, support fell to 46% and opposition increased to 44%. Voters expressed concern that the measure could harm the state’s economy and result in job losses.
“I have no love for billionaires,” Murphy said at a media conference Tuesday. “However, there are serious doubts among voters that this measure will deliver the promised results.”
The International Service Employees Union Health Care Workers West is sponsoring the bill, which estimates about 200 people in the state would be subject to the tax. The proceeds will be used to help fill the state’s health care funding shortfall due in part to federal funding cuts.
The poll found that 69% of voters thought it was almost certain or very likely that billionaires would hire lawyers and accountants to avoid taxes, resulting in the state collecting far less money than expected from the plan. There are also concerns that billionaires will leave the state with their companies, damaging the state’s economy.
Nearly half of respondents said it was almost certain or very likely that the case would be challenged in court, saying, “This billionaire, who already accounts for the majority of the state’s tax revenue, will avoid paying this tax by leaving California and moving to a lower-tax state.”
“This data clearly shows that this effort faces an uphill battle,” Melman Group said. “Policies are in trouble when voters believe that if passed, negative outcomes are significantly more likely than positive outcomes.”
David O. Sachs, chairman of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, speaks with President Donald Trump next to White House Senior Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence Sriram Krishnan and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick as President Trump signs an executive order on AI in the Oval Office at the White House on December 11, 2025 in Washington. December 11, 2025.
Al Drago | Reuters
The proposal has caused a rift in Silicon Valley, with prominent tech investors attacking Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents the region and has been a vocal supporter of the effort. Venture investor and White House AI and cryptocurrency czar David Sachs has vehemently opposed the measure, along with tech investors such as Chamath Palihapitiya, Vinod Khosla and Y Combinator’s Garry Tan.
google The New York Times said founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin left the state in response to the offer, and Peter Thiel said in recent weeks that the company has established a significant presence in Miami, opening an office for his venture.
Even Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom voiced strong opposition, as did San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, also a Democrat.
but Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, who has a net worth of more than $150 billion, said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month that he was “absolutely fine” about the possibility of taxation. airbnb CEO Brian Chesky told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” he plans to remain in the state.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Bloomberg that the tax was “poorly designed.”
Michael Bloomfield, managing director of the Melman Group, told reporters that polling found there was skepticism about the proposed tax revenue to solve the state’s health care problems.
“We know that (health care) is one of the most complex issues people face,” Bloomfield said, adding that the message of protecting the budget from federal health care cuts was “the least convincing” to respondents.
Attention: California tax worries about accelerating out-of-country debate
