Who controls that energy and what Maduro’s arrest means?

The arrest of Nicolas Maduro has put one of the world’s most politically troubled oil industries back in the spotlight, forcing investors to reassess who controls Venezuela’s oil resources and whether they can meaningfully revive after decades of decline.

For now, the answer may seem simple. “The state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) controls the majority of oil production and reserves,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

american energy company chevron operates in the country through its own production and joint ventures with PDVSA, and although Russian and Chinese companies also participate through partnerships, “most control still remains with PDVSA,” Lipow said.

Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in the 1970s, which led to the creation of PDVSA. Oil production peaked in 1997 at about 3.5 million barrels per day, but has since declined to an estimated 950,000 barrels per day, with exports at about 550,000 barrels per day, according to data provided by Lipow Oil Associates.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, said Chevron would be in a “perfect position” to expand its role if Venezuela had a more pro-U.S., pro-investment government. This is what European companies look like repsol and Eni There could also be benefits given its existing position in Venezuela, he said.

Any change in government could disrupt the commercial chains that keep Venezuelan barrels flowing, industry experts warned.

“At this point it is unclear who is in charge in Venezuela, so buyers don’t know who to send money to and exports may be stopped completely,” Lipou said. He added that the latest U.S. sanctions on the shadow tanker fleet have seriously affected exports, forcing Venezuela to cut production.

Shadow fleets refer to tankers that operate outside traditional shipping, insurance, and regulatory systems to transport crude oil from sanctioned countries. These vessels are commonly used to transport oil from countries such as Venezuela, Russia and Iran that face U.S. energy export restrictions.

Lipow said he expects Chevron to continue exporting 150,000 barrels per day and that the impact on supply will be limited for the time being. Still, he said the increased uncertainty could increase near-term risk premiums by about $3 a barrel.

This bump will come in the face of a market that many analysts view as well-supplied, at least for now. “The oil market is trending toward oversupply right now,” said Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group, adding that the immediate impact is “almost nothing.”

Venezuela’s long-term importance lies in the type of oil it produces. The country’s heavy, sour crude oil, which can be technically difficult to extract, is prized by complex refineries, especially in the United States, where “American refineries…love to slurp up that sticky crude from Venezuela and Canada,” McNally said.

“The real question is: Can the oil industry return to Venezuela and help it get back on its feet, reversing two decades of devastation and neglect?”

Lipou said oil exports could initially increase if a new government led by opposition leader Maria Colina Machado takes office early, as sanctions are eased and stored oil is used as a source of revenue. However, he added that short-term spikes could weigh on prices.

Still, the concept of sustained recovery faces severe physical limitations. He said: “Venezuela’s oil industry is in such a dilapidated state that even with a change of government, it is unlikely that oil production will increase significantly in the coming years as repairing existing infrastructure will require significant investment.”

Similarly, RBC’s Helima Croft warned that Venezuela has a long road to recovery, citing “decades of decline under Chavez and Maduro.” He said oil industry executives argue that a “stable security environment” is an absolute prerequisite and that rebuilding the industry will cost at least $10 billion a year.

“In a chaotic regime change scenario like what happened in Libya and Iraq, all bets are off,” she says.

—CNBC’s Chery Kang and Martin Soong contributed to this report.