Ten years after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates led a joint military operation to curb Iranian influence in Yemen, the two countries’ allies now find themselves at odds with each other in Yemen.
The Arab world’s most powerful countries have entered into an unprecedented public fight over Yemen, a strategically located and impoverished country with a history of unresolved conflict. This week, Saudi Arabia accused Abu Dhabi of endangering Saudi national security with “extremely dangerous” actions after attacking a UAE cargo of combat vehicles bound for Yemen in an unprecedented military escalation.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 after the Iranian-backed Houthis overran northern Yemen and took control of the capital Sanaa. Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened the following year, supporting local governments and militias with a unified vision of annihilating the Houthis.
But over the years, disagreements between Yemen’s rival factions have surfaced, and their competing agendas have unintentionally exposed the rift between the two Middle East allies, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
Here’s how the war in Yemen has turned into a proxy conflict involving former allies.
Who are the parties to the conflict in Yemen and who is supporting them?
Since the Houthis took over Yemen’s capital, the country has split into multiple spheres of influence and Iran’s support for the group has expanded its influence in the southern Arabian Peninsula.
The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are a Shiite Islamist movement active in the northwest of the country. In 2014, with the support of some citizens, they orchestrated a quick takeover of Sana’a and took control of the government. With Iran’s continued arms supplies and support, they emerged as Yemen’s most cohesive military and political entity, controlling much of the country’s northwestern border with Saudi Arabia and holding the vital Red Sea coastline, including access to vital maritime corridors. Over time, the Houthis evolved into one of Tehran’s most destructive regional proxies, launching missile attacks into Saudi Arabia and as far away as Israel. They withstood a long, Saudi-led military campaign that ultimately failed, leading the Houthis to secure a de facto ceasefire in 2022.
Yemen’s internationally recognized government operates under the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), created in 2022 to unite splintered factions against the Houthis. It commands a loose coalition of remnants of the regular army, tribal militias, and Sunni Muslim groups in the center and south of the country. These factions maintain a patchwork of strongholds, primarily in central Marib province, parts of Taiz, and southern Aden. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has carried out large-scale air and naval operations while limiting the deployment of ground forces to support the government and counter growing threats on its southern border.
The Southern Transition Council (STC) is a UAE-backed separatist group in southern Yemen that was founded in 2017 to advocate for the restoration of the southern Yemeni state, which disappeared after unification in 1990. Militia aligned with the group are backed by Abu Dhabi and have played a key role in fighting throughout the war, including in recent weeks.
Why are Saudi Arabia and the UAE at odds over Yemen?
Both countries led a military intervention in 2015 to counter the Houthis and restore internationally recognized governments, but divergent objectives led them to support rival factions. The UAE’s support for southern separatists seeking independence is in direct conflict with Saudi Arabia’s support for a united and stable Yemen on its borders.
After years of stalled efforts to end the conflict, UAE-backed forces launched a rapid offensive in early December that at times wrested control of the oil-rich province from Saudi-backed forces, leading to deadly clashes. Tensions reached a fever pitch this week when the Saudi-led coalition carried out airstrikes targeting UAE transport vehicles at Mukalla port in southern Yemen, accusing Abu Dhabi of endangering Saudi national security.
The UAE subsequently announced the withdrawal of its troops from Yemen.
“Over the past decade, the UAE has made great sacrifices to support stability and security in Yemen, acting at the behest of the legitimate Yemeni government, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and within the Saudi-led coalition, particularly in confronting terrorist organizations that threaten civilians and the wider region. In line with its approach to promoting peace and de-escalation, the UAE has ended the presence of counterterrorism forces,” UAE officials said in a statement.
Tensions escalated further on Friday when Saudi Arabia deployed its navy off the coast of Yemen, shortly after Riyadh-backed forces launched a “peaceful” ground offensive to retake the area from UAE-backed southern separatists. The video showed a large convoy of vehicles believed to be on their way to areas under southern military control.
The separatists have rejected claims that the attack was peaceful, accused Saudi Arabia of misleading the international community and declared the fighting a “civil war.” Southern forces also accused Riyadh of carrying out several airstrikes on its strongholds. Saudi Arabia has not commented on the matter.
Later on Friday, the STC announced that it would hold an independence referendum within two years to support “the exercise of the right of self-determination of southerners.”
Faleah al-Muslimi, a researcher at Chatham House think tank in London, said the unprecedented escalation “reflects fundamental disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over Yemen’s future political structure and the balance of influence within Yemen.”
“These actions mark an important turning point and show that Yemen’s fractured alliance is at a precarious and dangerous stage,” al-Muslimi said.
Ideological divisions and civil war have plagued modern Yemen for more than a century. North Yemen gained independence from the Ottoman Empire after 1918, while South Yemen remained under British rule until independence in 1967. The two states remained divided for approximately 23 years until their unification in 1990, and a civil war broke out in 1994, in which the southern secessionists were defeated, leaving grievances unaddressed and the conflict continuing.
As regional powers vie for influence, repeated conflicts have left the country, strategically located south of Saudi Arabia with access to key maritime corridors, extremely impoverished, highly unstable and well-armed.
The renewed conflict has further divided Yemen, with the Houthis, once a target of the region’s most powerful countries, seeing divisions between their enemies as an advantage. The group has launched missile and drone attacks on Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in the past, but has endured years of blockades and airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition.
“The Houthis are likely to take advantage of the widening rift between their two main adversaries, seeing that their former coalition partners – whom they fought together but were unable to defeat – are now turning against each other,” al-Muslimi said.
“While it remains unclear how Western governments will respond to escalating tensions between two of their most important regional partners, the implications for regional stability and Yemen’s already fragile political situation are profound,” he added.
