According to the Sevens Report, there are four pillars that will ensure the bull market continues into next year. With this year largely in the rearview mirror, investors are looking ahead to 2026. With one trading day left, the stock looks likely to end the year near its all-time high. As of Monday, the S&P 500 was less than 1% off its record despite closing lower. Last time, it was hovering around 6,900 yen. Wall Street is confident the rally can continue. Strategists, on average, expect the S&P 500 to post another double-digit gain in 2026, potentially ending the year at 7,629, according to a CNBC Market Strategist Survey. Sevens Report founder Tom Essay agreed that progress could continue, although there are further challenges. He urged investors to focus on four key pillars of the market rally: artificial intelligence, expected stable economic growth, monetary easing, and stable tariffs. Pillar 1: Enthusiasm for AI One theme that has been responsible for the stock market’s significant rise over the past three years is artificial intelligence. The release of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked a frenzy that pushed the S&P 500 up 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and over 17% in 2025 to date. According to Sevens Report, it is expected to continue to lead the market in 2026, although not as much as it has in the past three years. Companies will have to work harder to justify their steep multiples by showing revenue growth. “While AI mania will continue to be a bullish driver for markets in 2026, the rest of the economy and markets will have to do some of the heavy lifting if the major indexes are to repeat their impressive 2025 performance,” the report said. “Verdict: In place, but not as strong as in the past.” Pillar 2: Steady economic growth While the economic outlook remains stable into 2026 and could continue to boost the overall non-mega-cap market, the focus is on the labor market, the report says. Investors can ignore the 4.6% unemployment rate for now, but if it rises above 5% it will likely start to negatively impact stock prices, the note said. “That would be a very clear economic warning sign,” the report said. “At that point, the market will be highly vulnerable to AI disappointment, because if AI disappointment is coupled with growth concerns, few (if any) sectors will hold out.” Pillar 3: Continued rate cuts We need to monitor the interest rate outlook as we head into the new year. The Fed cut its outlook for 2026 by just one quarter of a point, but investors remain hopeful that a more dovish Fed chair will ease interest rates even more once he takes office. The market last priced in expectations for two rate cuts in 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “Verdict: Still in place, but all with a dovish new Fed chair who is actually cutting rates,” the report reads. Pillar 4: Tariff Clarity Stock markets have raised concerns about 2025 tariffs in the past, and the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of the Trump administration’s surcharges will likely resurface them early next year. This decision could have major implications, including the possibility of tariff refunds or reinstatement through other means. What’s more, this will cause bond yields to spike, and if the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5%, the stock market will suffer. “Verdict: Still in place, but at risk of damage in early 2026,” the report reads.
