Honduras will hold a general election on Sunday, amid suspicions of preemptive voter fraud and interference by the United States.
The presidential election is clouded by uncertainty. Of the several candidates running to succeed Honduran President Xiomara Castro, three have emerged as front-runners, but there is no clear winner.
“We are running an election with deep political and economic divisions,” political scientist Hector Soto Caballero told CNN. “This film highlights the conflict between two very different visions for this country.”
Castro’s term is scheduled to end on January 27th, making him the first leftist president to end his term in the country. Her husband, left-wing former President Manuel Zelaya, was overthrown in a coup in 2009.
The president is backing lawyer Rixie Moncada, a left-wing candidate from the ruling Liberty and Reconstruction Party (LIBRE) and the country’s first female defense minister, who has vowed to continue Mr. Castro’s policies.
Although Honduras’ economy has shown modest growth under Castro, who maintains a focus on social security and continues an International Monetary Fund credit program, his campaign has shifted focus to other polarizing issues.
“What is at stake is not the typical campaign promises related to health, education and security. Libre has stepped in and proposed a fundamental discussion of the democratization of the economy, but instead of proposing it through dialogue with the business sector, it is in conflict. This is polarizing society,” said Soto.
Centrist Liberal Salvador Nasrallah, a populist member of the Liberal Party, is also running. The TV star is a former ally of Mr Castro and served as vice president until last year. He called for labor reform and stronger trade ties with Western countries.
The National Party’s candidate is right-wing businessman and former mayor of Tegucigalpa, Nasry “Tito” Asufura. The construction mogul, who operates on a free market platform, is backed by US President Donald Trump.
Both the ruling and opposition parties have been stirring up allegations of voter fraud ahead of the election, which critics say undermines the integrity of the system.
The tense situation is putting pressure on the National Electoral Council (CNE), an independent body headed by three parliamentarians from each of the country’s major political parties.
Recently, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Honduran Armed Forces Roosevelt Hernandez requested from the council a copy of the presidential voting record on election day, which is not required by law. CNE president Ana Paola Hall described the move as “interference.”
“The military will not obey the National Electoral Council (CNE),” Sanchez said, expressing concern that they would use force if the results were not recognized. In this regard, she said the situation would follow “the same scenario as Nicaragua and Venezuela,” two countries whose electoral processes have been condemned and are not recognized by many countries in the region.
Castro said on the X show this week that the government “supports and respects” principles such as individual freedom, democracy and accountability.
International organizations expressed concern. Human Rights Watch’s Americas director Juanita Goebertus warned in a statement that “allegations of fraud, aggressive moves by both prosecutors and the military, and political gridlock among election authorities threaten Hondurans’ right to participate in free and fair elections.”
The Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union also called on authorities to guarantee the independence of electoral bodies.
CNE co-director Eduardo Fuentes acknowledged that “there were extraordinary circumstances and very contradictory positions,” but assured that the agency had fulfilled most of its responsibilities.
Honduras’ foreign policy and Washington’s influence
Pressure from the United States, Honduras’ largest trading partner, is also adding to tensions.
President Trump this week endorsed right-wing candidate Asfurura, saying on Truth Social that they could work together to “fight narco-communists and provide the Honduran people with the aid they need.” Trump added that Asufura is “defending democracy and fighting against Venezuelan President Maduro, who is facing a months-long pressure campaign from the United States.”
On Friday, President Trump posted again, saying he would pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández of the Conservative National Party, who is serving a 45-year prison sentence in the United States after being convicted of drug trafficking.
Soto said the ruling party is committed to maintaining business relations with the United States, while opposition candidates have signaled ideological ties to Washington.
“If Mr. Nasrallah wins, he will be openly showing that he is conciliatory to the U.S. leadership. Mr. Asfullah will have less opposition (to the White House). He will have closer influence,” Soto said.
Mr. Castro’s ruling party has met many of Washington’s demands on security and immigration issues while avoiding direct confrontation. The country has been heavily impacted by U.S. immigration policies, including the end of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for immigrants, which affected tens of thousands of Hondurans living in the United States. According to World Bank data, remittances account for about 25% of Honduras’ GDP.
“If the opposition wins, the relationship could change significantly,” Sanchez said, adding that Trump would not be satisfied if the ruling party remains in power.
Honduras has fewer tools than other countries to combat this asymmetrical relationship with the White House.
“We rely more on the U.S.-Central American relationship,” Sanchez said, noting that President Trump has already threatened to tax remittances and that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not include Honduras on his Central American and Caribbean tour.
Another important aspect of Honduras’ foreign policy is its relationship with Venezuela. Venezuela’s ruling Chavismo movement strongly supported Castro’s husband after the coup. “That created a long-term relationship. The government is definitely a close stakeholder, but they understand that it’s a complicated and uncomfortable relationship,” Soto said.
Castro was one of the few leaders in the region to recognize Nicolas Maduro’s claim of victory in the 2024 election. Moncada, who was handpicked to succeed him, avoided commenting on Venezuela during the campaign, but opposition candidates vowed to sever ties with Caracas if they became president.
If tensions between the United States and Venezuela escalate to military conflict, Soto said, it would increase the U.S. presence in Honduras, where U.S. military personnel are stationed at La Palmerola Air Base. “From a hemispheric perspective, there will be an impact, at least on the logistics side. If we have a government that is more aligned with Washington, it would be an opportunity to foster closer ties,” he said.
In Honduras, the White House also faces another challenge: China’s growing influence across Latin America.
Honduras established diplomatic relations with China in 2023 and severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, Soto points out that there has been no significant progress toward a free trade agreement since the relationship was established.
The Miami Strategic Information Institute (MSII), a Florida-based conservative think tank, said in a recent report that the election results “could deepen Beijing’s foothold or recalibrate it toward a position aligned with the United States.”
