Shoppers are heading into this year’s holiday season with even more trepidation. Because of deep-seated fears about the economy, inflation, and tariffs, many Americans are quietly recalculating, wondering not just what gifts to buy, but how much they can really afford. The latest consumer surveys and annual holiday forecasts reflect this anxiety heading into Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, and its subsequent Cyber Week. The Conference Board’s November confidence index fell to its lowest level since April. Similarly, the University of Michigan’s sentiment gauge has fallen near all-time lows. According to the 2025 Goldman Sachs Holiday Survey, 57% of consumers plan to spend the same amount or more on holiday gifts, down 2 percentage points from last year. 43% intend to reduce spending this year, an increase of 3 percentage points. The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending will rise 3.7% to 4.2%, topping $1 trillion for the first time. However, the midpoint of 3.95% indicates slower growth compared to last year. The latest retail earnings, led by Walmart, known for its low prices, reflect these concerns across income groups. “High-income and middle-income households are driving our growth. We continue to benefit as high-income households choose to shop more frequently,” Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a post-earnings conference call last week. That backdrop means retailers will have a more subdued holiday season on paper, but for some, the outcome could be better than feared. For the retailers in our portfolio, Amazon, Costco, and TJX, this season should highlight their strengths in an increasingly challenging economy. Here’s a look at what Wall Street analysts and the club are saying about how each could perform. Amazon: Club Rating 1 (Equivalent to Buy), Target Price $275 Amazon could be the biggest beneficiary. Amazon remains the top holiday shopping destination and is expected to gain market share year over year, according to Goldman research. As more consumers plan to use artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI to find and rate gifts, Amazon’s advanced recommendation system and AI integration with its integrated conversational chatbot Rufus will give Amazon a competitive advantage. Amazon also benefits from shoppers’ reliance on online convenience and price comparisons as consumers seek out the best deals amid continued inflation. “Amazon maintains the leading share of U.S. e-commerce at 46% and enters the holiday season with strong momentum thanks to early promotions, same-day shipping and low-cost services,” JPMorgan said in a note last week. Amazon has a roughly 14% price advantage across 16 online categories, “further supporting demand and market share growth,” analysts said. AMZN YTD Mountain Amazon YTD Club View: We believe Amazon’s speed, selection, and value of Prime membership give it a distinct advantage, even as consumer spending becomes more cautious. Jim Cramer said this week that Amazon’s AI-powered retail business “cannot be challenged.” Amazon stands to gain further market share in online retail, coupled with reaccelerating growth in its high-margin Amazon Web Services cloud business as seen in the third quarter, and the overall company and stock price may be poised for further growth heading into year-end. Jim has also defended Amazon’s stock, which soared to a record high in two trading sessions after the company reported earnings late on Oct. 30. Since then, the stock price has fallen more than 9%. TJX Companies: Club Rating 1 and $160 Target Price TJX Companies, owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, stands to benefit as cost-conscious consumers seek the kind of value offered by off-price retailers through a wide selection of high-quality products at deep discounts. Investors should already be confident that TJX is coming off a beat-and-raise quarter heading into the holiday season. Goldman analysts said “off-price retailers have increased their relative share” among consumers planning their holiday shopping. They highlighted “trade-down activity” as a factor influencing shoppers’ gift decisions. Goldman analysts said that as the holiday shopping environment becomes more subdued, “retailers offering good value and great fashion will gain market share.” TJX has both. TJX YTD Mountain TJX Companies YTD Club View: We continue to believe that the off-price giant is well-positioned to weather the discretionary spending downturn thanks to its value proposition and inventory flexibility, especially with management’s positive outlook heading into year-end. In its earnings call last week, TJX highlighted the strength of broad-based spending across all income groups. There’s a reason the stock has risen 28% this year, outperforming the broader market. TJX stock hit another intraday high on Wednesday. Costco: Club Rating 1, Price Target $1,100 Costco’s value model is also poised to shine this holiday season. Warehouse retailers tend to thrive when consumers become more discerning. With consumers planning to spend less this year, Costco’s low prices and bulk buying offer make it a natural choice. JPMorgan Chase’s latest spending data through early November shows activity in “other retail” spending, which includes warehouse clubs, up 6.7% year-over-year, compared with a 4.4% year-over-year increase in October. This suggests that demand is stable even as broad discretionary spending slows. Cost YTD Mountain Costco YTD Club View: Costco’s loyal member base and reputation for value have given it a level of stability that rivals most of its competitors. We believe Costco’s model is built on volume, low prices and great products, making us one of the best-positioned retailers heading into the holiday season. Costco’s membership renewal rate is stable and its younger customer base is increasing. Costco stock has cooled down recently, but its fundamentals haven’t. Jim sees Costco’s recent weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign, as its traditionally high price-to-earnings ratio has declined. You can tell that Costco’s sales are strong because, unlike most companies, it reports its numbers on a monthly basis. Costco, which is typically one of the last companies to report, is scheduled to report its results on December 11th (Jim Cramer Charitable Trust has a long list of stocks including AMZN, TJX, and COST; see the full list of stocks here). Subscribers to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club will receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he will issue a trade alert and then wait 72 hours before executing the trade. The above investment club information is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duties or obligations exist or arise from your receipt of information provided in connection with the Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
