Skyscrapers and commercial buildings on the skyline of the city of London, England, are illuminated on Tuesday, November 18, 2025. British business leaders have called on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to ease energy costs and avoid an increase in the tax burden for British businesses as she prepares this year’s budget.
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The preparations for this year’s UK Autumn Budget are unlike any other, as so many different tax proposals have been floated, flagged, leaked and withdrawn in the weeks and months leading up to Wednesday’s statement.
This “kite-flying” of policy proposals, aimed at testing public and market reactions before implementing ideas, has drawn criticism, with analysts saying it is creating confusion and uncertainty for the public, business community and investors.
It’s also becoming harder to see what Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves will actually get when she finally releases her spending and tax plans for next year.
Businesses have implored Mr Reeves not to introduce new tax increases after industry faced the brunt of around 40 billion pounds ($52.5 billion) in tax increases in last year’s budget, including an increase in employer payroll tax and the national minimum wage.
Business may not take off this year, but Reeves’ promise not to repeat the raids means that workers, wealthy individuals, property and pension contributions are now considered another potential source of additional income for the Treasury.
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves prepares to speak to the media during a visit to a branch of the Tesco supermarket chain in London, England, on November 19, 2025.
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Mr. Reeves has imposed strict “fiscal rules” on the Treasury Department, including that day-to-day expenses be covered by tax revenue rather than debt and that the budget be balanced or in surplus by the end of the decade, leaving the department in a tight budget.
These rules, coupled with higher borrowing costs, smaller-than-expected cuts to welfare spending and weaker prospects for growth and productivity, have left the Chancellor with an estimated £20bn hole to fill.
Mr Reeves is also thought to want to increase fiscal ‘headroom’ – the buffer the Treasury has to increase spending or cut taxes without breaking fiscal rules – from around £10bn to £15bn.
Equally important to Reeves is the latest economic forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which will be released at the same time as the budget statement. These forecasts are critical for markets and investors in assessing the impact of the Treasury’s plans.
CNBC takes a quick look at what we can expect from the autumn budget and the OBR.
tax increase
Tax increases are never popular, but the Reeves administration’s evaporating fiscal space and worsening economic outlook make them inevitable. Mr. Reeves has repeatedly said he needs to make “tough choices” in the budget. Still, there is some uncertainty about where the ax will fall.
A number of tax increase proposals were debated and abandoned in the run-up to the Budget, but perhaps the most infamous was the proposed increase in income tax. The idea was controversial from the start, as it meant Labor was prepared to break its manifesto promise not to raise taxes on working people, but bond investors responded favorably to the idea.
Mr. Reeves later withdrew the plan (which investors did not like), but economists say he is likely to freeze the income tax threshold, the level at which people start paying different tax rates. Given inflation and wage growth, rising wages will draw more workers into higher tax brackets and increase government revenue.
Nevertheless, this move alone will not be enough to fill the fiscal black hole and other tax increases that could be announced on Wednesday. These include high-rate council tax on high-value properties (known as ‘mansion tax’), gambling tax and pay-per-mile tax on electric cars.
Pensions could also be targeted, with adjustments to tax-efficient “salary sacrifice” schemes potentially reducing the amount employees can put into these initiatives.
Shoppers and tourists on Oxford Street brave the rain with umbrellas to brave the bad weather caused by recent storms on January 28, 2025 in London, England. Oxford Street is the main retail center of the capital’s West End and Europe’s busiest shopping street, with around 500,000 people visiting its approximately 300 stores each day. Most of them are fashion stores and high-end clothing stores. (Photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)
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Mr Reeves may also have some “perks” for voters, as he is reported to be poised to remove the two-child limit on welfare payments and reduce VAT on utility bills. A freeze on rail fares has already been announced. Reeves is expected to stick to his belief that reducing the cost of living is one of his key goals.

“There will be a ton of tax increases,” Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist, told CNBC on Tuesday. “This is going to be a historic budget. By our calculations, it will be the third largest tax increase in the post-war period,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
Many economists want the Chancellor of the Exchequer to introduce several large tax increases rather than a patchwork of smaller ones.
Laine Newton-Smith, chairman of the Confederation of British Industry, issued a warning to Mr Reeves on Monday, saying one or two big tax increases were better than “death by 1,000 taxes”. Mohammad Jamei, director of the CBI’s economics department, reiterated a similar call on Tuesday, telling CNBC that economic growth will lead to higher tax revenues.
“What we are not seeing is the surge in business growth and investment that we desperately need to support the government to close the fiscal gap that currently exists,” he said.

Economists tend to agree that there appears to be little political appetite for large-scale spending cuts, so much of the budget shortfall will need to be met with tax increases.
OBR prediction
All eyes will be on Britain’s independent financial watchdog when it releases its view on the country’s economic outlook and public finances on Wednesday.
The OBR, the public body that determines whether the government is on track to meet its own fiscal targets, could have more bad news for Mr Reeves, with Sky News reporting on Monday that the OBR could be looking to revise downward its UK growth forecasts for each of the next five years.
Skyscrapers and commercial buildings on the skyline of the city of London, England, are illuminated on Tuesday, November 18, 2025. British business leaders have called on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to ease energy costs and avoid an increase in the tax burden for British businesses as she prepares this year’s budget.
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It was reported last month that the OBR was prepared to cut its UK productivity growth forecast.
