Beijing
—
Weeks after taking office, Japan’s new leader faced what it meant to cross China’s red line with Taiwan.
Since Sanae Takaichi suggested that Taiwan might respond militarily if China moves to seize the island by force, Beijing has reversed its strategy of economic pressure, warned its citizens against traveling or studying in Taiwan, suggested there would be no market for Japan’s seafood exports in China, and unleashed a wall-to-wall wave of nationalist fervor against the prime minister.
The uproar appears carefully orchestrated to send a warning to Japan and other countries in the region of what could happen if they even consider taking a stand against China on Taiwan, an autonomous democratic island that China claims as its own territory.
However, the conflict, which shows no signs of abating even after about two weeks, reveals something else. That’s Beijing’s persistent concern about a potential shift in its military posture in Asia as U.S. allies ramp up defense spending and coordination in the face of their own growing military capabilities.
No country stirs up these concerns more than Japan. In the 20th century, the Imperial Japanese Army invaded and occupied China, committing atrocities and colonizing Taiwan decades earlier. This is the main sore point of China’s so-called “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers.
Anti-Japanese sentiment has been simmering domestically ever since, intensifying and gaining momentum in recent years as hard-line nationalist voices become increasingly mainstream in China under strongman leader Xi Jinping.
To strengthen the ruling Communist Party’s long-standing determination to never repeat history, Mr. Xi has rapidly modernized China’s military and expanded its global influence.
Now, in Beijing’s eyes, Takaichi’s comments make it clear that Japan does not respect the massive rebalancing of power that would position China as the dominant superpower, and that Japan has military ambitions that could threaten China’s rise.
“For the first time, a Japanese leader has expressed ambitions for armed intervention in Taiwan and made military threats against China,” an editorial in Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily said earlier this week. “Behind this lies a dangerous attempt by Japan’s right-wing forces to seek the status of a “military power,” freed from the constraints of the pacifist constitution.”
In recent years, Japan has moved away from the pacifist constitution imposed by the United States after World War II and made major changes in its security posture in order to increase its defense budget and acquire counterattack capabilities.
This comes as the Chinese government increases its military activities in the region, including around Taiwan, and the United States increases its share of defense costs with its allies.
Japanese leaders have so far avoided discussing Taiwan in the context of a military response, but politicians, especially those on the right wing of Takaichi’s party, are increasingly wary of the consequences for Japan if China were to attack Taiwan, which is strategically located to the south of Japan. This sentiment led to increased momentum to further expand Japan’s defense spending and even change its constitution.
Takaichi, a hawkish figure who previously drew the ire of the Chinese government by questioning some of the rhetoric surrounding Imperial Japan’s responsibility for war atrocities, has now taken a step forward to speak openly about the Taiwan issue. In the first days of her term, she has also called for closer security ties with the United States and moved to accelerate the country’s defense buildup.
In Beijing’s eyes, such efforts risk seeing “the ‘ghost’ of militarism” reappear and “wreak havoc on the world,” according to a social media account linked to the Chinese military.
This is why, according to Chong Jia Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, some people on the Japanese side feel that the Chinese government is currently aggressively attacking Mr. Gaoichi, saying, “In order to corral Mr. Gaoichi and put him at an early disadvantage, Mr. Gaoichi will be reluctant to advance Japan’s defense investments.”
Japanese forces killed more than 200,000 unarmed civilians during the occupation and raped and tortured tens of thousands of women and girls in an incident known as the Nanjing Massacre, one of the most infamous wartime atrocities of the 20th century. Japan has repeatedly apologized and expressed remorse for its wartime atrocities.
But this year, as Beijing marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, that era is front and center in China. At this time, Japan’s surrender to Allied forces liberated China from occupation, and Taiwan was handed over to the Chinese government run by the Kuomintang.
The Chinese Communist Party won the civil war and established the People’s Republic of China in 1949, but the defeated Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan. Beijing has expressed concern that the anniversary is being used to legitimize its claims to the islands and what it sees as Japan’s shift toward militarism.
China sees control of Taiwan as a core part of its “national rejuvenation” that must be completed by mid-century, but this goal could be greatly complicated by a more powerful Japan if Beijing decides it must achieve it by force.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, said that for Beijing, Gao’s comments can be summed up as “the wrong person at the wrong time” and “the wrong person saying the wrong things.”
Despite Tokyo sending a special envoy to Beijing earlier this week to try to calm the conflict, Beijing shows no signs of slowing down the flood of rhetoric.
Instead, the Japanese government is insisting that the comments be retracted, but the position is that this is not an easy way for either side to find a way out.
Meanwhile, China continues to stir up nationalist sentiment, with a video released Wednesday titled “Don’t be too cocky” showing shots fired by the Chinese military. Although Japan’s name is not mentioned, the song includes a rap song that goes, “We’ve honed our skills through rigorous training, so how can you be so cocky?”
But the appearances of Japan’s Foreign Ministry envoy Masaaki Kanai and his Chinese counterpart Liu Jinsong after talks in Beijing earlier this week may underline why China is still unwilling to ease pressure.
The image, which shows Mr. Liu standing up straight with his hands in his pockets, talking to Mr. Kanai, whose head is tilted forward as he listens, went viral on Chinese social media.
Commentators described the Japanese diplomats as “bowing” while praising Liu’s choice of clothing, a style reminiscent of China’s 1919 May Fourth anti-imperialist protests.
The symbolism appears to be no coincidence, as the caption of the post on state broadcaster CCTV reads: “China’s position in defending its sovereignty has remained unchanged for a century.”
