Global robotaxi competition intensifies between US and Chinese rivals

BEIJING — Chinese robotaxi companies are expanding overseas at a faster pace than their U.S. rivals Waymo and Waymo. tesla At a time when industry leaders say autonomous driving is nearing a tipping point.

“I think robotaxis are reaching a tipping point, both here in China and in the United States.” Baidu CEO Robin Lee said on an earnings call Tuesday, according to a FactSet transcript.

“Enough people have had the opportunity to experience driverless cars, and word of mouth has generated positive feedback on social media,” he said, noting that wider public availability could speed up regulatory approval.

His comments echo similar optimism expressed in recent weeks by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Xpeng co-president Brian Gu, who have reversed their earlier cautious stances as technology advances faster than expected. Xpeng plans to launch robotaxis in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou next year.

This is a global market with significant growth potential, likely to be worth more than $25 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs estimates in May.

To seize that opportunity, Chinese companies are aggressively expanding overseas, arguing they are close to making robotaxis a viable business, rather than just spending cash and gaining market share.

In the past 18 months, Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide have partnered with: Uber This will allow ride-hailing app users to order robotaxis in certain locations, including the Middle East.

Murtuza Ali, senior analyst at Counterpoint, said such partnerships are “critical to success” as they allow robotaxi companies to operate more efficiently and reach profitability faster.

Baidu said its robot taxi Apollo Go has achieved per-vehicle profitability in Wuhan since late last year, with the company operating more than 1,000 vehicles in its largest deployment in China.

That means passenger numbers are enough to offset Wuhan’s taxi fares, which are 30% cheaper than Beijing or Shanghai and well below prices in the US or Europe. In addition to developing self-driving systems, Baidu has also produced electric robotaxis vehicles that are 50% cheaper without relying on third-party manufacturers.

“If we can make a profit on each vehicle in a second-tier city in mainland China (such as Wuhan), we can make a profit on many cities around the world,” Halton Niu, Apollo Go’s general manager of overseas operations, told CNBC.

“Size matters,” he says. “For example, if you only have 100 to 200 cars in a city, if you only cover a small area of ​​the city, you will never make a profit.”

Scale remains the dividing line. In the United States, alphabetWaymo, owned by , operates more than 2,500 vehicles and is rapidly expanding from major cities in California to Texas and Florida, with plans to enter London next year following its first overseas operation in Tokyo.

Tesla sells electric cars in China and reportedly unveiled its CyberCab in Shanghai this month. But it didn’t start testing robotaxis in Texas until June, and this week it received permission to operate in Arizona.

Amazon’s Zoox is also strengthening its presence in the United States, but has not announced any overseas plans.

The three companies have not disclosed plans to break even with robotaxis.

Baidu Apollo Go’s Niu did not rule out expansion into the United States, but for now the robotaxi operator plans to enter Europe on a trial basis in parts of Switzerland next month, following expansion in the Middle East this year.

Last week, Abu Dhabi granted Apollo Go a general tolling permit for its fully driverless robotaxis, eight months after on-site trials began in parts of the city. The robotaxis are operated locally under the AutoGo brand.

But Chinese startups we ride The company said on Oct. 31 it had received a similar permit to charge fares for fully driverless robotaxis in Abu Dhabi, arguing that removing human staff from the vehicles would allow each vehicle to make a profit.

it is pony eye Of China’s three major robotaxis operators, it is the farthest from profitability. Leo Haojun Wang, the company’s chief financial officer, told The Wall Street Journal in mid-September that the company aims to turn a profit on each car by the end of this year or early next year.

Pony.ai plans to launch a fully autonomous commercial robotaxis operation in Dubai in 2026 after receiving a pilot permit at the end of September. The company plans to expand in Europe in the coming months and has also outlined expansion into Singapore.

Pony.ai and WeRide are scheduled to report quarterly results early next week.

“Companies such as Waymo, Baidu, WeRide and Pony.ai currently lead in terms of fleet size and are well positioned to compete for profitability,” said Yuqian Ding, head of China automotive research at HSBC.

Fleet size is becoming an indicator of competitiveness. According to reports, Pony.ai plans to release 1,000 robotaxis in the Middle East by 2028, and WeRide aims to operate 1,000 robotaxis in the region by the end of next year.

Niu said Apollo Go operates around 100 robotaxis in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and plans to double its fleet in the coming months.

“Apollo Go has had a head start with significantly more test drives than the other two,” Kai Wang, Asia stock market strategist at Morningstar, said in an email. “The more tests and data we can collect from our trips, the more likely our AI sensors will be able to recognize objects on the road. This also means improved safety.”

He cautioned that while some early progress has been made, the robotaxi race remains uncertain because “no company has really adopted the vehicles in mass quantities yet.”

Coverage remains limited. In China, robotaxis are only allowed to operate in selected areas, but Pony.ai recently won the first regulatory approval to operate robotaxis throughout Shenzhen, China’s Silicon Valley. In Beijing, self-driving taxis are mainly limited to the suburbs of Yizhuang.

Anecdotally, CNBC’s testing found that the Pony.ai provided a smoother ride than the Apollo Go, which is prone to sudden braking.

As for safety, so far none of the six operators have reported deaths or serious injuries from robotaxis, which is important for regulatory approval. However, Apollo Go and Waymo have begun touting the low deployment rate of their airbags.

The Chinese government is expected to shore up support at home, even if it is not enough to convince regulators around the world.

HSBC’s Ding predicts that the number of robotaxis on China’s roads could rise from a few thousand to tens of thousands by the end of this year and 2026, a change that would give operators more evidence that their models work.