When President Vladimir Putin first started targeting Ukraine’s energy sector, it didn’t have the impact the Kremlin had hoped. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian operations and carefully ration electricity supplies has helped solidify leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s credibility at home.
Three years later, things have gotten even more difficult. Ukraine’s president has come under fire over a burgeoning corruption scandal in the energy sector, while the country faces its fourth harshest winter with unprecedented power outages and heating cuts.
On the battlefield, Ukraine’s military finds itself outnumbered in the east, particularly in Pokrovsk, a former logistics hub, as key Western allies appear to be concentrated elsewhere. While the war may remain Ukraine’s top priority, President Zelenskiy’s immediate concern is likely to be corruption.
The scandal, which focuses on allegations of kickbacks from contractors, including those working to protect critical energy infrastructure, has already resulted in the dismissal of two Zelensky government ministers and involves former business associates from his time in the entertainment industry.
The government announced on Wednesday that it would suspend Justice Minister Galushchenko, a German who previously served as energy minister. Galushchenko said he would defend himself against the allegations. He and his successor as energy minister then submitted their resignations at Zelenskiy’s urging. Expedited parliamentary approval is expected.
Earlier this week, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency announced it had carried out raids on dozens of properties, including properties linked to Galushchenko, as part of an investigation into the alleged kickbacks.
According to investigators, about $100 million, or 10% to 15% of the contract value, was siphoned off as state-owned companies such as Energoatom, which operates Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, paid companies for work to strengthen the safety of key facilities.
The recent corruption scandals involving the energy sector give it a special advantage. As a result of Russia’s improved ability to attack power plants and substations, people in Kiev are now without power for eight to 11 hours a day.
Diesel generators purchased during the first power outage three years ago have reappeared outside shops and cafes. Candlelight dinners have once again become part of everyday life.
A power outage can mean no heating, no elevators in high-rise buildings, and no water. The situation is usually worse in towns and cities outside the capital.
Court hearings on the investigation have been taking place in Kiev since Tuesday, streamed live on the public broadcaster’s website, and are expected to continue for at least the next few days. These include snippets of what investigators say are 1,000 hours of recorded conversations between suspects in the case.
One of the conversations published Wednesday, in which Zelenskiy himself was name-checked, was the first potentially damaging incident. Timur Mindić, the accused mastermind of the corruption scheme, appeared to suggest he had influence with the president, boasting to Galushchenko that he had managed to get Zelenskiy to call the then energy minister and invite him to a meeting, according to a transcript read out in court.
The records do not include details of the alleged calls, and Zelenskiy has not commented. This appears to be the first time that his name has been mentioned, albeit indirectly, in a corruption case in Ukraine.
And then there’s Mindic himself, perhaps the most troubling element of all of this as far as Ukraine’s leadership is concerned.
Mr. Mindić, who was given the code name “Karlsson” by his alleged co-conspirators, is a former business partner of Mr. Zelenskiy and dates back to his career as a highly successful entertainer and producer.
Ukraine’s border service said in a statement late Wednesday that Mindić himself had not commented on the charges against him and had left the country. The agency confirmed that he legally retired, adding that it had not been ordered to stop. Zelenskiy’s cabinet has now introduced sanctions against Mindić, including blocking his business interests and bank accounts.
Defeat Russia and fight corruption
Allegations of corruption in Ukraine are nothing new. During the first months of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, there was a tacit understanding among Ukrainian journalists and civil society that corruption investigations were not a priority. All that mattered was defeating Russia.
That consensus began to crumble after about a year. Since 2023, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has launched an investigation into a series of scandals involving the deputy prime minister, including illegal land development projects and the embezzlement of public funds earmarked for food for soldiers.
Zelenskiy has so far managed to avoid being embroiled in scandal, but in the summer, after approving parliamentary moves to neutralize NABU and the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Corruption, Ukrainians were alarmed by the largest anti-government protests since the full-scale invasion. He withdrew under pressure from key international allies, who have made fighting corruption a key pillar of their long-term support for Kiev.
Timofey Milovanov, a former cabinet minister in Zelensky’s government and now head of the Kiev School of Economics, told CNN that the president needs to “act as harshly as possible” if he wants to maintain public support among Ukrainians. “(People) said, ‘Let’s see how he acts…If he’s not acting, he’ll be with them (defendants). We’ll see if he’s acting…But if he really sanctions them, arrests them, prosecutes the people who allowed this to happen, then he’s fine.'”
Mr. Milovanov was a member of Energoatom’s supervisory board until Tuesday, when he resigned from his position after accusing the company’s executives of failing to respond quickly to the scandal, but he blamed ignorance rather than corruption for holding the company back.
It is too early to tell whether this corruption scandal will cause lasting damage to Mr. Zelenskiy’s support among Ukrainians. A recent poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that even before the latest allegations, public trust in Ukraine’s leadership remained at around 60%, down from earlier this year but in line with 2024 levels.
Tolerance for corruption declined over the same period, albeit less dramatically.
Andy Hunter, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said it is imperative that those who steal from the state are held fully accountable.
“This is an important moment for the Ukrainian leadership to demonstrate its unwavering commitment to integrity and accountability,” he told CNN.
Milovanov took a more pessimistic view of how the corruption scandal is likely to affect the Trump administration, regardless of how Zelenskyy acts.
“I don’t know if they care,” he said. “But they will use it as leverage against Zelenskiy.”
Victoria Butenko and Svitlana Vlasova contributed reporting.
