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Home » Economists say job market is cooling but ‘not off a cliff’
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Economists say job market is cooling but ‘not off a cliff’

adminBy adminNovember 8, 2025No Comments5 Mins Read
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A recent series of high-profile layoffs have made headlines and caused anxiety in the workforce.

Companies announced 153,074 layoffs in October, bringing the total to 1.1 million layoffs for the year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This makes this year the worst year for layoff notices since 2009, CNBC reported.

But employment experts say there’s no panic. News of layoffs does not paint a complete picture of the job market. Daniel Chao, Glassdoor’s chief economist, said private data on job openings, salaries and employee sentiment shows that while employment has cooled, it’s “not fallen off a cliff.”

Challenger’s monthly data can be volatile, with layoff announcements not yet reflected in weekly state-level unemployment benefits filings, although announcements continue to be made throughout the shutdown.

“I’m not worried,” said Laura Ulrich, director of economic research at Indeed. The latest available data “does not appear to indicate that the economy as a whole is entering a period of high levels of layoffs today.”

Government shutdowns and layoffs take a toll on worker confidence

Economists aren’t predicting a recession any time soon, but news of layoffs and government shutdowns are taking a toll on worker confidence.

The percentage of Glassdoor reviews mentioning layoffs is up 22% year-over-year as of October, according to job site data. Workers’ confidence in the job market has fallen from a modest rise in September and is nearing the recent all-time low reached in June, according to Glassdoor data.

Last year, senior-level employees saw the biggest decline in confidence, dropping 4.6 points since October 2024.

This is concerning because leadership trust spills over to other employees through hiring and investment plans. If senior executives aren’t confident that their business is on track, they may decide to cut back on hiring or headcount, Zhao said.

Meanwhile, for those in the market, fewer people say they’ve received a job offer but turned it down, suggesting they have less influence and may be settling for a job rather than holding out for a better one, Glassdoor data shows.

Health care new developments are offsetting losses elsewhere

Additionally, many workers are competing for fewer opportunities. As of October 31, Indeed job postings are at their lowest level since 2021, continuing a downward trend for the past four years.

Job openings are lowest in areas affected by the government shutdown, including Washington, D.C., and areas such as California and Washington state, which have seen recent layoffs in the technology sector.

Job openings are concentrated in the healthcare, security and safety, and engineering fields, and overall the job market remains stable.

“I think this is a story of two economies,” Ulrich said. “In some sectors, employment continues to increase, while in others, employment continues to decline.”

Health care and private education jobs have supported the labor economy for some time. These account for about 17% of national employment, but accounted for 56% of employment growth from July 2023 to July 2025.

“If health care employment starts to decline, that would be a wake-up call for me,” Ulrich said.

The big picture: “The job market is in turmoil.”

Economists say that while the available data sets can provide a pretty good picture of the job market, the best look at the health of the labor economy requires official Labor Department data on employment and unemployment.

The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.3% in August, the last month for which government data are available.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release new employment figures Friday due to the government shutdown. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect employment to fall by 60,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5%, CNBC reports.

Overall, the numbers we have indicate a continued slowdown in the job market. Economic uncertainty is weighing on employers’ willingness to hire, forcing job seekers out of the market and reducing the leverage of hired workers to advance their careers, get raises and stay engaged in the workplace, Zhao said.

Employment experts say networking and asking for referrals is the best way to get a job now. To stand out in a competitive market, consider honing your resume to be results-based, building your personal brand on LinkedIn, and conducting mock interviews, Kathleen Nolan, senior recruiter at GrowthLoop, previously told CNBC Make It.

“Overall, the current job market is in turmoil,” Zhao said. “Even if the unemployment rate is even (and) some of the key indicators still show that the job market is not as bad as it has been historically, that doesn’t necessarily mean people are happy with the current job market situation.”

Want to level up your AI skills? Sign up for CNBC Make It’s new online course, “How to use AI to better communicate at work by Smarter by CNBC Make It.” Get specific prompts to optimize your emails, notes, and presentations for tone, context, and audience.

Plus, sign up for the CNBC Make It newsletter for tips and tricks to succeed at work, money, and life, and request to join our exclusive community on LinkedIn to connect with experts and colleagues.

I left the US for Lisbon – and only work 20 hours a week.



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