The military seized power in Madagascar this week as youth-led protests intensified and President Andriy Rajoelina was forced to flee.
For Rajoelina, 51, a former DJ, this scenario was all too familiar. Rajoelina was first brought to power by the military in 2009 after a youth-led uprising drove her predecessor into exile.
The events in Madagascar reflect a broader trend of similar protests in recent years affecting countries in Africa, Asia and South America.
Although the specific causes of the protests vary, they share common characteristics. That said, it is largely led by Generation Z (people born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s), who have expressed dissatisfaction with the government.
Technology is also a common feature of protests organized and mobilized through social media.
In Nepal, a Gen Z movement fueled by anger over social media bans, government corruption and limited economic opportunities led to the ouster of the prime minister in September.
A similar change will occur in Bangladesh in 2024. Bangladesh’s “Gen Z revolution” saw weeks of violent protests led mainly by students that led to the ouster of the country’s longtime leader Sheikh Hasina.
Similarly, in 2022, youth protests successfully toppled the ruling government in Sri Lanka.
For Madagascar’s Generation Z, removing the president from office was a top priority. But while the people of Bangladesh replaced Hasina with a Nobel Peace Prize winner, Madagascar’s president was replaced by the military. In other words, the country’s youth may have to wait to choose their leaders.
Madagascar is currently under the rule of Michael Landrianirina, the commander of a powerful army force who previously supported Rajoelina’s rise to power.
“The last few weeks have been a half-win, and the real fight begins now,” the movement’s spokesperson, Elliott Landriamandrat, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
But he believes the military’s involvement facilitated Rajoelina’s ouster.
“People need to understand that without one, the other would not have happened,” Randriamandrato told AFP. “The military alone would not have been able to do it. It would have taken us months alone, even if we were ready. The turning point came when the two merged.”
The question now is whether what happened in Madagascar will be repeated elsewhere on the continent.
Africa’s young people are increasingly calling for major reforms amid rising insecurity. This continent is home to the world’s youngest population.
In North Africa, young Moroccans are uniting under the banner of the “Gen Z 212” movement, named after the country’s international phone number.
They are critical of the Moroccan government’s priorities, accusing authorities of overshadowing investments in sports infrastructure over healthcare and education. Recent demonstrations have reported deadly clashes and police violence.
In East Africa, protests erupted in Kenya over a controversial finance bill that increased taxes amid a cost-of-living crisis. These complaints have turned into calls for a change of government, and many deaths have been reported.
Kingsley Moghalu, a former presidential candidate and public policy expert from Nigeria, told CNN that the move shows a growing awareness among young people of their political power.
“We should be very wary of African leaders who are underperforming,” Moghar warns.
Suwikani Ncube, a lecturer at South Africa’s University of Johannesburg, said Rajoelina’s ouster could reinvigorate sluggish protest movements across the continent.
There have been no large-scale protests in Kenya since July. Similarly, in Mozambique, a youth uprising following last year’s chaotic elections was crushed.
“The perceived success of Madagascar’s young people during these lulls may be helpful to those who have lost momentum or are simply reconsidering their plans to embark on sustained protests,” Ncube told CNN.
As youth protests intensify, African governments, particularly those led by the military, are unlikely to abandon their positions without a fight. Even civilian-led regimes have proven their ability to survive.
In Kenya, President William Ruto, under growing pressure to resign, has dared his critics to remove him from office before the next election in 2027.
“I want to say to the characters I’m speaking to that by 2027, we can use violence and illegal means to change this regime. Let’s try,” he said in July in response to violent protests.
Protests in neighboring Uganda last year were inspired by demonstrations in Kenya organized by young people to denounce government corruption. Dozens of activists were arrested during these protests.
President Yoweri Museveni, 81, has ruled Uganda with an iron fist for nearly four decades. He previously warned that protesters were “playing with fire”.
Museveni plans to run for a seventh term as president next year, but faces a possible challenge from Bobi Wine, 43, the country’s main opposition leader. Wine has been arrested multiple times by Ugandan security forces over the years.
In Madagascar, Rajoelina shows no signs of relinquishing power even after his ouster. He is in exile but has not officially resigned, calling his ouster a coup.
Coups and regime changes are not uncommon in Africa. The Sahel region, which stretches from Senegal to Sudan, accounts for more than half of the world’s terrorism-related deaths, and security remains a major challenge.
More broadly, citizens are frustrated by their leaders’ inability to fight corruption or provide much-needed jobs and services.
“Governance failure in Africa is the most important challenge facing the continent, and it is very deep-rooted,” Moghar said.
What makes the Gen Z movement so dangerous for African leaders is that the continent is home to some of the poorest countries in the world, and unemployment is widespread, especially among young people, who make up more than half of the population.
While young people’s demands differ across continents, Mogale highlighted commonalities. “Their decision to vent their frustrations and take action rather than bottle up their frustrations (over issues plaguing the continent).”
He warned that if these challenges continue, youth-led rebellions are likely to become a regular occurrence in Africa.
“Gen Z is an impatient and assertive generation, and the rise of technology has made it easier for them to do so.”
