A cargo ship carrying foreign trade containers in the Jiaozhou Bay waterway in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, August 5, 2025.
Cost Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images
China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, and imports posted the strongest increase in more than a year, even though a trade deal with the United States remains elusive.
China’s exports rose 8.3% in dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed on Monday, beating a 7.1% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters and rebounding from a six-month low in August.
Imports rose 7.4% last month from a year earlier, LSEG data showed, significantly exceeding Reuters’ forecast for a 1.5% rise and the strongest level since April 2024.
In September, China’s exports to the US fell 27% from the same month last year, and imports fell 16%. Since April, the Chinese government’s imports from the United States have fallen by double digits every month compared to the previous year.
China’s trade surplus with the United States shrank to $208.6 billion in the first nine months, compared with $25.8 billion in the same period last year, according to official data.
The double-digit decline in shipments to the United States was largely offset by a sharp increase in exports to other markets. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, and Africa increased by 15.6%, 10.4%, and 56.4%, respectively.
Tensions between China and the United States have flared up again in recent days, with both sides trading wars and tightening their own restrictions, threatening to undermine progress made after several rounds of bilateral trade talks this year.
Trade tensions intensify
US President Donald Trump has threatened additional 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and tightened export controls on critical software. Meanwhile, the Chinese government expanded rare earth export controls (though some of them won’t take effect until November) and added chip consultancy Tech Insights to its blacklist of “untrustworthy companies.” Authorities also launched a new antitrust investigation into the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing giant Qualcomm.
Gabriel Wildeau, managing director at political risk advisory firm Teneo, said if additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were layered on top of the current tariffs, which average about 55%, the total penalty could exceed 150%, effectively triggering an embargo.
“China is likely to respond with retaliation, and bilateral trade will gradually slow down,” Wildau added.
Both countries have threatened to impose surcharges on the other’s ships when entering their ports, with the penalties set to take effect on October 14th. China’s surcharges start at 400 yuan ($56) per tonne, matching the U.S. government’s levy.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States accounts for only 0.1% of the world’s shipbuilding industry, while China accounts for 53.3%.
Chinese customs spokesperson Liu Daliang said at a press conference on Monday that he hopes Beijing realizes that the United States is taking the wrong approach in raising port fees, and urged the United States to return to dialogue and negotiations.
Liu added that new tariffs introduced by several countries this year have hurt businesses and disrupted the global economy, and said China remained committed to supporting multilateral trade.
Hopes for a trade deal were further dampened by China, the world’s largest soybean importer, showing reluctance to resume purchasing U.S. crops.
President Trump said earlier this month that he hoped to press the Chinese president to lift a months-long moratorium on purchases of U.S. soybeans during a meeting scheduled for late October.
Official data showed Chinese soybean imports rose 13% year-on-year in September, but details about the sources of these crops were not immediately available.
China’s rare earth exports in September were 4,000 tons, down 30% from the previous month. Earlier this month, the Chinese government tightened its controls over critical minerals by adding five new elements to its control list and increasing oversight of foreign companies seeking access to the materials.
Wildau said the rule could have a major impact if fully implemented, as it would require global chip companies such as Nvidia, TSMC and Intel to obtain licenses from Chinese regulators to sell chips around the world.
President Trump and Xi’s meeting is in a delicate situation
Alan von Mehren, China economist at Danske Bank, said the focus has now shifted to a meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump later this month, where the two countries can de-escalate, and believes there is more than a 50% chance of such an outcome.
China’s Commerce Ministry said early Sunday that the United States should withdraw its tariff threat and urge further talks to resolve outstanding trade issues.
The Department of Commerce stated, “Threatening China with high tariffs every time it happens is not the right way to get along with China.” “If the United States sticks to its own course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests.”
Wang Jun, vice minister of customs, said at a press conference on Monday that trade stabilization in the fourth quarter will be difficult due to the complex external environment and last year’s high base effect.
Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank, said China will likely be forced to deepen ties with other markets, which could give it greater access to trading partners. “Countries that wish to engage with China are likely to find a more favorable export environment in the coming years,” he added.
imports recover
The unexpected surge in Chinese imports in September came after a year of sluggish demand due to a prolonged housing recession, rising job uncertainty and tapering of consumption-focused stimulus.
Despite the improvement, other closely monitored spending data continues to show deflationary pressures across the economy.
Total domestic tourism during the eight-day holiday that ended Oct. 8 generated $113.6 billion in revenue, up 7.6% from a year ago but slowing from an 8% increase during another holiday in May. Goldman Sachs estimates that the average amount spent per trip is also down about 3% compared to 2019, before the pandemic.
According to LSEG data, economists expect deflation in the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index (released Wednesday) to continue in September, with PPI down 2.3% year-on-year and CPI down 0.1%.
China’s trade surplus last month was $90.5 billion, up from $81.7 billion in September last year, customs data showed.
